As Guatemalans prepare to go to the polls this Sunday, August 20, they will do so under a cloak of electoral uncertainty. Bernardo Arévalo de León, of the Semilla Movement, looks set to win the second round of the country’s presidential elections with 61% of voting intentions, according to a recent poll. Despite this, his rival, former first lady Sandra Torres Casanova, is also emerging strong, with 39% in the polls.
The campaign has been fraught with tension and attempts by the Attorney General’s Office to annul Arevalo de Leon’s party for alleged cases of false signatures during its registration in 2018. Torres Casanova is running for president for the third consecutive time, having lost in the second round by a wide margin in both 2015 and 2019.
Of particular importance in these elections is the role of Guatemalans living abroad. In the United States alone, 90,708 people have registered to vote at 15 different polling stations across the country, including Los Angeles; Queens, NY; Arlington, VA; Houston; Atlanta; and Chicago. However, due to problems originated by the TSE, only 1,443 of this population were able to cast their vote in the first round.
A new CID Gallup poll has shown a 51% intention of citizens to go to the polls this Sunday, while 19% doubt whether they will attend and another 12% decided not to participate. Citizens’ expectations seem to be low, as only 32% of those polled believe that the arrival of Arévalo de León to the presidency will improve Guatemala’s situation and only 20% believe that there will be positive changes if Torres Casanova wins.
The outcome of the elections is uncertain, but what is certain is that on Sunday Guatemala will put an end to a bitter contest with two very different candidates whose results will mark the future of the country.
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